Fantasy Matchup Win Probability Calculator

How to use the Fantasy Matchup Win Probability Calculator

1. Enter your team’s projected points and your opponent’s.
2. Enter a standard deviation for each team, which is how far a score usually strays from its projection. 20 is a reasonable starting point.
3. Read your win chance and the odds. Raise the spread to see how much an underdog benefits from more variance.

Example

Worked example (115 vs 108, both with a spread of 20)

• Margin: 7 points
• Spread of the margin: √(20² + 20²) = 28.3 points
• Win chance: 59.8% for you, 40.2% for your opponent

Limitations

• A simple normal model. Real scores are not perfectly bell-shaped, and injuries and byes are not modelled.
• The spread is your estimate. We cannot tell how variable your own lineup is.
• Projections come from wherever you get them. This tool does not provide any.
• This is not betting advice.

Sources

About this tool

The Fantasy Matchup Win Probability Calculator estimates your chance of winning a head-to-head week. Enter both teams’ projected points and a standard deviation, which says how much a team’s score swings from its projection, and it returns the win chance using the normal distribution. A bigger spread means more upsets. It is a simple model for fun and planning, not a prediction of any player’s performance.

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Fantasy Matchup Win Probability Calculator is part of ToolStack Hub's Calculators. It runs entirely in your browser, which keeps your data private and makes results instant. There is nothing to install and no account to create. There is no usage limit.

Frequently asked questions